Developing a New Generation of Residual Value Forecasting
Transforming a global vehicle data business through predictive analytics, scenario-based forecasting and international commercial expansion.
The Challenge
An established international automotive data business held a strong position in the dealer used vehicle market, providing data-driven solutions to improve stock management and profitability.
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However, its ability to expand into OEM, leasing, rental and fleet markets was constrained by the absence of a comprehensive residual value (RV) forecasting capability.
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Traditional valuation models were increasingly challenged by structural changes in the automotive market, including electrification, emerging technologies and the market disruption experienced during COVID-19.
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The business needed to transform its data science capabilities, develop a differentiated forecasting proposition and establish the commercial infrastructure to address new customer segments.
Our Approach
The transformation was delivered through three interconnected phases.
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Phase 1 – Data Science and Technology Transformation
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Restructuring and expanding the organisation's data and technology capabilities, building specialist expertise in data science, machine learning and predictive AI.
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This provided the foundation for more sophisticated vehicle valuation and forecasting technologies.
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Phase 2 – Development of a New RV Forecasting Methodology
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Developing an innovative forecasting methodology combining advanced statistical and machine-learning models with structured scenario analysis.
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Recognising the limitations of purely historical approaches, the new methodology incorporated STEEP analysis — Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political factors — to assess future market developments and their implications for vehicle residual values.
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This enabled the business to move beyond historical price extrapolation towards a more forward-looking, scenario-driven approach to RV forecasting.
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Phase 3 – International Commercial Launch
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Launching the new proposition across 19 countries, supported by a dedicated fleet and residual value sales organisation.
The programme included developing specialist commercial capabilities, establishing RV advisory services and positioning the business as a thought leader in vehicle valuation and residual value forecasting.
The Outcome
The new RV forecasting capability was successfully developed and launched internationally, creating a major new growth opportunity for the business.
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The expansion into fleet, leasing and residual value advisory services transformed the company's commercial mix, with the fleet segment, supported by RV forecasting and consultancy, growing to represent approximately 50% of global sales.
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The programme repositioned the business from a predominantly dealer-focused valuation provider towards a broader automotive data, forecasting and decision-support organisation.